Only about 20 percent of commercial forecasters saw the colder winter coming, Persad said. Instead, it was unusually cold - just as StatWeather predicted. Halpert, however, had predicted this past winter was going to be warmer than normal. “This is kind of like being a gambler in Las Vegas, on any one hand you may lose,” he added, declining to discuss StatWeather specifically. It would work if we had 1,000 years or 10,000 years of data, but we don’t,” said Mike Halpert of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. “We only have data for the last 100 years, which is 100 winters, which is a really small sample size. Traditional meteorologists use computer models as well, and some see value in mixing historical data with what is happening outside their window, but they are skeptical of relying too heavily on the past. Persad looks far ahead: she sees the California drought persisting until late 2015, so far into the future as to draw scoffs from some practitioners. “They aren’t actually studying this 120 years of data log to extract patterns like we are to draw statistical lessons.” “Weathermen are looking at what’s happening now - they are looking at current data to get to the future,” said Persad. “It has taken me two solid decades to get something useful,” said data miner Ria Persad, the president of StatWeather. After years of tinkering, they say their weather algorithms can blow away traditional forecasting. Traditional meteorologists, who look at current weather patterns to make forecasts, have long derided examining historical temperatures as “climatology”, of limited use, at best, when trying to predict the future.īut applied mathematicians, some of whom once worked on Wall Street as market-predicting “quants,” see the future in patterns of historical data.
#CAPTIAL WEATHER GANG WEATHER WALL CRACKED#
HOUSTON (Reuters) - Computer scientists are picking a new fight with old school meteorologists, claiming finally to have cracked the code on weather forecasting at a pivotal, profitable moment for the field, as climate change roils commodities markets and industries.īanks and traders are reporting outsized profits, and losses, on everything from natural gas to grains as severe weather causes extra price volatility power grid operators are struggling with bouts of extreme cold or droughts that crimp supplies while demand spikes and more and more retailers and manufacturers are using forecasts to manage inventories.
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